The economic supply of energy is critical to a country's GDP - reference several articles. such as one from Paul Chefurka http://www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP2/Energy_GDP_2050.html with the quote: "The models by Kummel and Ayres predict that for every 1% increase in energy inputs you get about a 0.7% increase in GDP on average. The immediate implication is that a reduction of 1% in energy will cause a corresponding 0.7% drop in GDP.
Considering the implications on GDP, there will be continued conflicts over energy resources if the (global) supply does not meet the (global) demand.
The battle for resources have been the root cause for all conflicts, people are anticipating a conflict over energy, water and food, so I believe the conflict has always been on going. (Not necessarly using guns and tanks)
I believe that there is a deeper undercurrent flowing below what appears to be simply a matter of natural resources as regards international affairs, particularly in the Middle East. To clarify on this further I will base my view to an article I read on-line a while ago (unfortunately the source currently eludes me). The main foreign policy of the United States in the Middle East is mostly relative to the geopolitical importance of the the Arab nations. Through the war on terrorism and the elimination of players such as Iraq and Afganistan they cultivated a crop of insurgency and chaos in the broader geographic religion that has prevented the Arab nations from uniting and actually creating a very strong player in the international chessboard. In such a scenario of the creation of such an economic bloc the oil discounts towards the US would stop, following the decline on the arms race, and Israel would face unified pressure through boycotts. So far this external policy of the US has been succesful, viewed from a strictly cynical and detached point of view. At the moment I cannot really comment on the effect of the Islamic Spring on global diplomacy; and the emergence of China, India and Brazil as new superpowers of our century could fill pages over pages of analysis by people more qualified to do so, but I believe that the issue here is not something new (resources) but rather reasons that have been in effect since the concept of independent nations was first conceived.
In short, I don't think it's all about the oil!
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The economic supply of energy is critical to a country's GDP - reference several articles. such as one from Paul Chefurka http://www.paulchefurka.ca/WEAP2/Energy_GDP_2050.html with the quote: "The models by Kummel and Ayres predict that for every 1% increase in energy inputs you get about a 0.7% increase in GDP on average. The immediate implication is that a reduction of 1% in energy will cause a corresponding 0.7% drop in GDP.
Considering the implications on GDP, there will be continued conflicts over energy resources if the (global) supply does not meet the (global) demand.
Aren't we past the edge? Conflict is here.
The main foreign policy of the United States in the Middle East is mostly relative to the geopolitical importance of the the Arab nations. Through the war on terrorism and the elimination of players such as Iraq and Afganistan they cultivated a crop of insurgency and chaos in the broader geographic religion that has prevented the Arab nations from uniting and actually creating a very strong player in the international chessboard. In such a scenario of the creation of such an economic bloc the oil discounts towards the US would stop, following the decline on the arms race, and Israel would face unified pressure through boycotts. So far this external policy of the US has been succesful, viewed from a strictly cynical and detached point of view.
At the moment I cannot really comment on the effect of the Islamic Spring on global diplomacy; and the emergence of China, India and Brazil as new superpowers of our century could fill pages over pages of analysis by people more qualified to do so, but I believe that the issue here is not something new (resources) but rather reasons that have been in effect since the concept of independent nations was first conceived.
In short, I don't think it's all about the oil!
Would you like to comment?
You must be a member. Sign In if you are already a member.